Latest data from Eurostat show that South-Eastern Europe countries non members of the European Union (Turkey, Croatia, Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia) record the highest natural growth rate of the population in the entire Europe. Turkey is the peak.
In spite of the two negative rates registered by Croatia (-2.17) and Serbia (-3.92), the region ranks an average of 4.56 natural growth rate per 1000, which is almost 7 times higher than the average of European Union (0.68) and more than 9 times over the average of entire Europe (0.49).
Taking the past 9 years, from 2000 on, we can definitely see that Turkey is leading the way, with a steady natural growth rate ranging from 12.64 to 14.07 and an average of 13.13. Kosovo, a small nation recently settled in the Balkans, is closely coming next with an averaged natural growth rate of 13.11, which sets up positive perspectives in terms of population size for the nation’s future.
Albania is the third (8.36), followed by Montenegro (3.9), Macedonia (3.34) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (0.78).
What do the forecasts show
Population breakdown by groups of age in the 8 countries above show a consistent trend of population getting younger, in direct opposite with what is happening in the EU, Western Europe or other highly economically developed areas of the world.
The percentage of 0-14 year old across South Eastern markets is 27% higher than the one in EU (21.37% vs only 16.88%). The peak is registered in Turkey where, across the past 9 years, we see a figure of 29.2% of the entire population of ~70 million found in the group of 0-14 year olds. This is basically saying that Turkey has the best chances to keep a high population growth rate on the long term.
At the other end, the percentage of 65+ population is the smallest in the region and the smallest in the entire Europe, of only 4.39%. Albania is the only other country of the area that record a one digit figure for 65+ population, namely 8.47%, while all the others show double digit figures, same as the rest of Europe. The average for EU 27 members is 15.29, 61% higher than Turkey’s.
Another explanation maybe?
The crude birth rate indicator, which shows the nativity of childbirths per 1000 and per year, also puts South Eastern Europe 21% above EU average (13.02 vs 10.76). Same as before, Turkey ranks best in the region and in Europe, with an impressive rate of 19.41. The runner up this time is Kosovo, with an interesting figure of 16.62. At the other pole, Bosnia and Croatia share the last spots, with a rate of 9.33.
To summarize all numbers and trends above, it’s easy to see that the region’s population tends to become younger with every year and increase in size much faster than the rest of Europe does it. This may have multiple influences on economy growth in the near future, since a larger pool of younger population ensures more chances for a healthy and productive labor market, which can help both players: local industries and European Union, since some of these states are already strong candidates for joining EU with the next wave.
About BrainActive Market Research
BrainActive Market Research (brainactive-mr.com) is the premier provider of online market research solutions in the Central and Eastern Europe area. Its extensive network of actively managed online panels currently covers 19 countries, including all of the emerging markets in the region: Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary. BrainActive offers access to a total of 1.6+ million consumer or business-to-business online research respondents, carefully recruited to represent the general offline population of each country.
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