Frost & Sullivan forecasts Indonesia’s vehicle sales to reach 1.1 million units in 2017, growing at a rate of 5 per cent and riding strong domestic consumption. Indonesia’s economy is forecasted to recover from the prolonged market slump plaguing the market over the last few years.
According to Mr. Vivek Vaidya, Senior Vice President of Mobility at Frost & Sullivan, in 2017 the Indonesian economy will be in a healthier shape resulting from positive consumer sentiment, growth of private investments, robust Government spending and revival of exports.
He continued,“Government’s tight control on the fiscal situation, various stimulus packages for the economy and the much lauded tax amnesty scheme have helped boost market confidence. Going forward, fiscal prudence and continued structural reforms will be crucial to maintain the momentum and weather global headwinds.”
Launch of key models in 2H of 2016 and in 2017 is also likely to have a positive impact on the total industry volume (TIV). Promotional campaigns, in conjunction with motor shows in various cities will also stimulate demand.
Increase in global oil prices is likely to push fuel prices and cause adjustments in electricity tariffs. This could unleash inflationary pressures on the market.
“In 2017, we expect to see a clearer picture and direction of the development of the Indonesian automotive industry over the short to medium term with the finalization of several key regulations, such as the low carbon emission program and the automotive industry roadmap,” said Mr. Vaidya.
Strong domestic consumption helped the Indonesian automotive market grow by 4.6 per cent to 1.06 million units despite sluggish external environment, weak commodity prices and trailing private investment.
“The strong demand for Passenger cars drove the TIV growth in 2016. However, weak external sector and depressed commodity prices further shrunk the CV market, declining for the 3rd successive year,” Mr. Vaidya said.
Passenger vehicle market in 2016
Passenger Vehicle sales reached approximately 854,000 units in 2016, about 15.9 per cent higher than 2015 sales. LCGCs exhibited the highest growth in this segment with 38.3 per cent followed by SUV with 23.7 per cent and MPV with 10.3 per cent. The top three players in the Passenger car segment consolidated their market position through new model launches in key volume segments. Toyota led with a 43 per cent share in the segment, followed by Honda with 23.3 per cent and Daihatsu with 17.3 per cent.
“Toyota grew its share with the launch of the all new Calya and Sienta models while Honda continued its dream run with Mobilio, BR-V and HR-V, its product champions for 2016,” said Mr. Vaidya.
Commercial vehicle market in 2016
Mr. Vaidya said that commercial vehicle sales in Indonesia declined 25.5 per cent to 206,000 units in 2016. Government’s spending on infrastructure (such as transportation and construction) was a positive stimulus for commercial vehicles, mainly MHCVs and buses. However, global demand remained weak despite the upswing in commodity prices such as coal and palm oil towards the year-end causing businesses to hold down their fleet renewal thus impacting all CV segments.
Mr. Vaidya added,“The sluggish growth in the key mining sector caused further decline in heavy truck sales.”
The big slump in the Pickup/Small Commercial Vehicle (SCV) segment saw Suzuki and Daihatsu shares slip to 20.4 per cent and 19.7 per cent respectively. Mitsubishi continues to be the market leader with 35.9 per cent of share while Hino and Isuzu were able to gain further share to 10.5 per cent and 7.2 per cent respectively, with their segment focus and competitive pricing..
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