NewswireToday - /newswire/ -
London, United Kingdom, 2013/12/20 - Carson Fitch now forecast that global oil demand in 2014 will be higher than previously forecast, after consumption in the U.S. rebounded to its strongest level in five years as a recent International Energy Agency, (IEA), report said.
The IEA estimate that monthly oil demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, to 92.4 million a day next year, raising its last projection by 240,000 a day. U.S. fuel use rose above 20 million barrels a day in November for the first time since 2008, according to preliminary data.
David Phillips, Senior Analyst at Carson Fitch, New York stated,“The geopoliticals are now bullish, as are the fundamentals. This is quite a change from just recently. People are now anticipating much tighter supplies as we go into next year as demand will be much higher.”
“Oil product inventories in the most industrialized economies have “plummeted” recently as demand in these nations have expanded rapidly in the third quarter after four consecutive quarterly declines. Stockpiles of crude and refined products were at 2.7 billion barrels in November, or 29.7 million less than their five-year average,” Phillips added.
“Let’s not forget, the IEA has raised estimates for supplies required next year from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries by about 200,000 barrels a day, to 29.3 million a day. That’s still about 400,000 a day more needed than the group’s 12 members pumped in the last quarter.”
“OPEC’s output fell for a fourth month, by 160,000 barrels a day, and is not expected to increase anytime soon as a result of disruptions in Libya and smaller declines in Nigeria, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.”
“We are advising clients to pay attention to these supply and demand fundamentals and look upon them as being the ideal opportunity to put some energy related commodity options into your portfolio,” Phillips concluded.
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