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Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 2011/07/14 - Frost & Sullivan is revising its 2011 total industry volume (TIV) forecast to 615,900 units, from 623,000 units estimated previously as a result of supply chain disruptions from the impact of the March 11 Japan earthquake.
Mr. Kavan Mukhtyar, Partner & Head of the Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan said that TIV for 2011 will be impacted due to production slowdown and delay in key models launches by automakers.
He added that the newly amended Hire Purchase Act is also likely to have an impact on TIV due to the longer lead time to complete the car purchase process.
"Vehicle sales may have been slowed down considerably in the second quarter of 2011 but will likely pick up in early August due to the rush for Perodua Myvi delivery leading to Hari Raya Aidilfitri celebrations and Japanese automakers ramping up production," he added.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that TIV will continue to be aided by launch of key models launch. He added that the new Perodua Myvi, launched in the middle of June, has received more than 17,000 bookings as of mid-July.
He said that the B-segment (small & compact cars) will continue its growth in 2011, increasing 8 per cent year-on-year to 88,700 units, mainly driven by the highly anticipated sales of the new Perodua Myvi.
The A-segment however, will continue to see a dip and is expected to decline by 8 per cent year-on-year to 64,700 units due to a lack of new models and possible customer migration towards the new Perodua Myvi, he added.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that sales in the C-segment (mid-size sedans) are expected to increase 5 per cent year-on-year to 138,800 units while sales in the D segment (premium & large sedans) are likely to increase 10 per cent year-on-year to 96,100 units.
Sales for multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) are expected decline 14 per cent year-on-year to 92,600 units from 107,700 units last year, mainly due to the normalizing sales of the Proton Exora and Perodua Alza.
"The decline in MPV sales is expected and normal after the spectacular growth in the segment in 2010," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
"Other than a few new facelift models, no other brand new model launches are expected this year in the MPV space," he added.
Demand for 4x4/sports utility vehicles (SUV) is expected to be the fastest growing segment in the passenger vehicle segment, growing 30 per cent year-on-year to 20,000 units spurred by the sales of the Honda CRV, Hyundai Tucson, Naza/Kia Sorento and Mitsubishi ASX.
He said that in the commercial vehicle segment, sales of pick-up trucks are expected to increase by 10 per cent to 44,500 units this year based on continued robust sales of Toyota Hilux, Mitsubishi Triton and Isuzu DMAX. Other commercial vehicles such as buses, trucks and prime movers are also likely to see sales increase by 3 per cent year-on-year to 70,400 units in 2011.
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