Frost & Sullivan expects Malaysia's total industry volume (TIV) to increase at a moderate pace of 4.1 per cent year-on-year to 623,000 units in 2011, supported by the launch of new vehicle models and stable economic outlook.
Mr. Kavan Mukhtyar, Partner & Head of the Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific said that greater employment stability and marginal impact of the expected interest rates hike in 2011 will aid the Malaysian automotive industry.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that B-segment (small & compact cars) will be the fastest growing segment, increasing 14 per cent year-on-year to 91,044 units in 2011 due to the launch of the new Perodua Myvi, which is likely to see good consumer acceptance.
Demand for sports utility vehicles (SUV) is expected to grow 8 per cent year-on-year to 15,912 units while the D-segment (premium & large sedans) is likely to increase 5 per cent year-on-year to 43,263 units in 2011.
Sales in the C-segment (mid-size sedans) is likely to increase 6.9 per cent year-on-year to 234,183 units, making it the largest contributor to the Malaysian total vehicle sales, accounting for about 37.6 per cent. "Sales in the C-segment will likely be driven by the launch of new models such as Honda Insight and Proton Inspira," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
"The introduction of about 16 new vehicles and face-lifts in 2011 will increase competition in the B and C segments," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
Sales for multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) are expected to decline 5.5 per cent year-on-year to 101,319 units in 2011 due to the lack of new models. However, MPVs are expected to be the second biggest contributor to the Malaysian total vehicle sales, accounting for about 16.3 per cent still much higher than 2009 sales.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that sales for hybrids in 2011 are likely to more than double to 3,400 units as compared to an estimated 1,500 units (inclusive of bookings) in 2010 due to the excise duty exemptions on hybrid cars (below 2,000 cc) until the end of 2011.
"Incentives given by Government are likely to generate high interest in hybrid vehicles such as Honda Insight and Toyota Prius," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
He added that Proton is also expected to launch a hybrid model for the Exora by end of 2011.
Mr. Mukhtyar believes that the strategic partnerships between local companies and foreign automakers (DRB-Hicom-Volkswagen; Naza-Peugeot and Berjaya Corp-BYD Corp) will intensify competition in the years ahead.
2010 Vehicle Sales Review
Frost & Sullivan expects vehicle sales in 2010 to end at a historic high of 598,200 units, growing 11.4 per cent year-on-year.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that the record vehicle sales in 2010 were mainly attributed to the improved economic sentiment and spill-over sales from new models launched in 2009.
"Sales of MPVs were the strongest among all vehicle segments, increasing 68.2 per cent year-on-year in 2010 due to the exciting model launches in the segment," said Mr. Mukhtyar.
Passenger vehicles market share by OEMs in 2010
Mr. Mukhtyar said that in the passenger vehicles market, Perodua (Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd) continues to maintain its pole position in 2010 with an estimated 34.6 per cent market share due to the robust sales of Alza and Myvi models. Meanwhile, Proton Holdings Bhd's market share in the passenger vehicles segment in 2010 is estimated at 29.3 per cent.
In the non-national car segment, Toyota's market share in the passenger vehicles segment is likely to decline marginally by 0.6 percentage points to 12.9 per cent in 2010 due to stiff competition in the C and MPV segments. Meanwhile, Honda's market share in the passenger vehicles segment probably grew by 0.3 percentage points to 8.3 per cent due to strong sales in the D and SUV segments.
Commercial vehicles market share by OEMs in 2010
Mr. Mukhtyar added that the pick-up segment registered a 29.3 per cent year-on-year growth in 2010. Toyota continued its dominance in the commercial vehicles segment with a 32.4 per cent market share in 2010 due to strong sales in pick-up trucks such as Toyota Hilux. Mitsubishi is likely to increase its market share in the commercial vehicles segment by 3.2 percentage points to 13 per cent in 2010 due to the success of the Triton. Hino's market share is expected to grow by 1.4 percentage points to 7.4 per cent.
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About Kavan Mukhtyar
Mr. Kavan Mukhtyar heads the Asia Pacific Automotive & Transportation Practice. He has 15 years of business consulting, research, analysis and leadership experience. Specific expertise includes strategy consulting, mergers & acquisitions, developing market strategies and implementation plans for geographic and new product expansion.
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