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Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 2010/01/14 - Frost & Sullivan expects Malaysia's total industry volume (TIV) to rebound in 2010 with a 4.5 per cent growth to a historic high of 555,000 units due to an improved economic outlook and rising consumer sentiment.
Mr. Kavan Mukhtyar, Partner & Head of the Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan said that the vehicle sales will also be driven by replacement car buyers.
He added that a substantial number of Malaysians who purchased their vehicles from 2003-2005 may look at replacing their cars in 2010. "Prospective buyers who deferred their purchase in 2009 are also expected to replace their cars in 2010 as the economy recovers," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
He also said that vehicle sales will be aided by the key models launched late last year such as Perodua Alza and Kia Forte. Proton's new C/D segment model, scheduled to be launched this year will also boost vehicle sales growth.
He added that Frost & Sullivan continues to believe that Malaysia's significant young population will provide an impetus for vehicle sales growth in the long term. Mr. Mukhtyar also foresees that the number of first-time car buyers will increase in the next few years and this will be a key growth driver for entry-level cars.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that multi-purpose vehicles (MPV) will be the fastest growth segment, increasing 12.7 per cent year-on-year in 2010 to 68,000 units due to the intense competition among Proton Exora and Perodua Alza.
Passenger cars will be the slowest growth segment at 3.2 per cent year-on-year due to a lack of new mass market models as well as some passenger car customers opting for the entry-level MPVs. However, passenger cars will remain as the biggest contributor to the Malaysian total vehicle sales, accounting for about 75.3 per cent.
Demand for commercial vehicles is expected to increase 5 per cent year-on-year to 52,345 units while 4x4 Sports Utility Vehicles is likely to grow 7.9 per cent year-on-year to 11,210 units.
Mr. Mukhtyar said there will be continued interest and development in electric vehicles and hybrids by carmakers but is expecting negligible demand by consumers in Malaysia in 2010.
Frost & Sullivan expects vehicle sales in 2009 to end 3.1 per cent lower year-on-year at 531,000 units as compared to its earlier forecasted TIV of 501,500 units.
"The better-than-expected TIV for 2009 was due to the Malaysian Government's stimulus package, scrapping incentive scheme for Proton and Perodua and continued strong sales of Perodua's Myvi and Viva and Proton Saga," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
He added that the voluntary scrapping incentive has softened the downtrend in vehicle sales for 2009. He also said that about 31,000 new vehicles were sold in 2009 due to the incentive.
He also noted that vehicle sales in East Malaysia (Sabah & Sarawak) are estimated to have grown by about 3.4 per cent year-on-year in 2009 as compared to a 4.7 per cent decline in Peninsular Malaysia. "In 2009, the commercial vehicles segment increased at 11.5 per cent year-on-year in East Malaysia, reflecting a more robust economy in Sabah and Sarawak due to increased development activities and both States limited exposure to the manufacturing sector," he added.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that in 2009, Proton managed to increase its market share by 1.9 per cent due to sales from Exora in the MPV segment. Perodua continues to maintain its pole position in 2009 as Malaysia's leading carmaker with an estimated 33.4 per cent with Proton following closely behind at 30.4 per cent.
In the non-national car segment, Toyota's market share is likely to decline by 4 per cent to 13.6 per cent in 2009 due to intense competition in the MPV and entry-level mid-sized passenger car segments. Meanwhile, Honda's market share grew by 1.6 percentage points to 8.1 per cent due to the new Honda City launch.
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