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China’s unique economic environment has allowed it to ride through the recent financial crisis relatively unscathed. According to a study in China and World Economy published by Wiley-Blackwell, China should be able to offset the adverse impact of external shocks, putting the economy back on track to resume its strong economic growth.
The study entitled “China: Unscathed through the Global Financial Tsunami” investigates the reasons behind the resilience of China’s economy to the global financial tsunami and provides a detailed analysis of the factors that will drive its economic recovery.
“Unlike many other economies, China’s financial, household, public and external sectors are lowly leveraged, giving it strong economic foundations to weather through the global financial crisis. In fact, there is plenty of room for Chinese households, banks and the government to increase their leverage ratios, which is crucial factor to the economic recovery”, said author Mingchun Sun, Chief China Economist, Nomura International (HK) Limited, Hong Kong.
The study finds that the main cause of the China’s sharp economic slowdown in late 2008 was due to massive destocking, rather than falling exports. Mainly driven by domestic demand for the past two decades, China’s economy is expected to resume its strong uptrend even without an export recovery.
Sun adds, “Although China cannot completely escape the global downturn, its solid economic fundamentals should cushion it from a hard landing. We expect the V-shaped recovery to last until the first quarter of 2010, and a sustained economic recovery in China till 2011, with real GDP growth exceeding 10 percent in 2010.”
This article is published in the China & World Economy (Vol. 17, Issue 6, pp. 24-42).
Media wishing to receive a PDF of the full study should contact Alina Boey, Senior Manager, Corporate Communications.
About China & World Economy
China & World Economy was launched in 1993 by the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Originally self-published, the journal begins its official publishing partnership with Blackwell Publishing in 2006. Published six times a year, this journal combines original academic research works with policy review articles - many of its authors are distinguished Chinese economists from both academic and governmental circles. As the only English language journal in China devoted to the topic of Chinese economics, readers can expect objective, analytical and up-to-date quality content. With distinguished contributors such as economists from both the government and academic circles, the journal will provide an informed and balanced window on China, and will undoubtedly become essential reading for all those interested in China's development.
About Wiley
Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (wiley.com) has been a valued source of information and understanding for 200 years, helping people around the world meet their needs and fulfill their aspirations. Since 1901, Wiley and its acquired companies have published the works of more than 400 Nobel laureates in all categories: Literature, Economics, Physiology/Medicine, Chemistry and Peace.
Our core businesses include scientific, technical, medical and scholarly journals, encyclopedias, books, and online products and services; professional/trade publishes books, subscription products, training materials, and online applications and websites; and educational materials for undergraduate and graduate students and lifelong learners. Wiley's global headquarters are located in Hoboken, New Jersey, with operations in the U.S., Europe, Asia, Canada, and Australia. The Company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbols JWa and JWb.
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Wiley-Blackwell is the international scientific, technical, medical and scholarly publishing business of John Wiley & Sons, with strengths in every major academic and professional field and partnerships with many of the world’s leading societies. Wiley-Blackwell publishes nearly 1,500 peer-reviewed journals and 1,500+ new books annually in print and online, as well as databases, major reference works and laboratory protocols.
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