The establishment of transport corridors and a flourishing tourism industry across the key Sub-Saharan countries is stoking North Africa's emergence as an assembly/production hub of commercial vehicles (CVs) for the Middle East and Europe. Recognising the huge demand in this region, manufacturers are insisting to set up manufacturing bases to cater to the domestic and export markets.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (automotive.frost.com), Strategic Outlook of Select North African (Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt) Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Markets, finds that the total sales volumes for CVs was close to 39,600 units in FY2012-13 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 8.3 per cent until FY2019-20. While the sales of trucks totaled 33,500 units in FY2012-13, the market sold close to 6,100 buses the same year.
"North Africa's CV market will rise in prominence, largely because of its advantageous geopolitical situation and low export tax structure due to the EU-North Africa Customs Union," said Subhash Joshi, Sr. Consultant, Automotive and Transportation Practice, Middle East and North Africa, Frost & Sullivan. "However, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are likely to concentrate more on meeting domestic demand, rather than export."
OEMs are expected to invest substantially in developing assembly and local R&D facilities, as higher expenditure on R&D will make them eligible for corporate tax exemptions. Further, this setting up of assembly plants will give market participants an edge in market penetration.
Manufacturers have to be prepared for some roadblocks in the initial stages in the form of consolidations in the supply chain for assembly/production. However, the higher localisation of manufacturing will enhance the probability of establishing a local end-to-end value chain that covers core components and auxiliary equipment.
Global manufacturers in North Africa will also be up against competition from low-cost Chinese OEMs, which are rapidly expanding in the region. They will be looking to combat this threat from Chinese CVs by offering attractive prices.
The market will also benefit immensely from various regulations and legislation. "For instance, the implementation of emission norms post 2015, which caused a decline in used truck imports, is likely to raise the demand for new heavy duty trucks," noted Joshi. "Additionally, due to strict import policies and high tax rates on used truck imports, Algeria and Morocco are likely to experience demand for new medium and heavy duty trucks."
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Strategic Outlook of Select North African (Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt) Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Markets is part of the Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership Service program. Frost & Sullivan's related research services include: Egyptian Transportation and Logistics Market, and 2020 Vision of the Global Automotive Industry. All research services included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.
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Strategic Outlook of Select North African (Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt) Light, Medium, and Heavy Commercial Vehicle Markets / P75A-18
Nimisha Iyer, Corporate Communications - Middle East, North Africa and South Asia
P: +91.22.6607 2004 / F: +91.22.2832 4713 - E: niyer[.]frost.com.