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Market Commentary for January 31, 2007 from Millennium-Traders.com - Written for day traders, active traders and investors. A review of the market activity for the day, economic data plus, world news
Market Commentary for January 31, 2007 from Millennium-Traders.com

 

NewswireToday - /newswire/ - Somerset, PA, United States, 2007/01/31 - Written for day traders, active traders and investors. A review of the market activity for the day, economic data plus, world news.

   
 
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their decision today on short term interest rates which was to hold firmly at the current rate of 5.25%. Additional comments from the FOMC were as follows: FOMC voted unanimously for unchanged federal funds rate; keeps focus on inflation risk; inflation pressures likely to moderate over time; high "resource utilization" poses inflation risk; core inflation readings have "improved modestly"; economy "likely to expand at a moderate pace"; recent indicators "suggested somewhat firmer" economy; some "tentative signs" of stabilizing housing market; any future hikes would depend on data, outlook and added that "some inflation risks remain".

Prior to the release of the decision on interest rates, the market was mixed but flat through the session. We saw a nice rise by the major indices after the rate decision was announced and the market was controlled by the Bulls, into the close. At the end of the trading session, here is how the major indices ended the day: the DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) moved nicely higher by 98.38 points to end the session at 12621.69; the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) moved higher by 48.34 points to end at 9254.73; the NASDAQ moved higher by 15.29 points to close at 2463.93; the S&P 500 gained 9.42 points to end at 1438.24 and the RUSSELL 2000 gained 2.37 points to close at 784.11.
The FTSE All-World Index ex-US (top Large/Mid Cap aggregate from over 2,700 stocks from the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) which covers 90% of the worlds investable market capitalization) moved higher by 1.09 to close at 241.57 and the FTSE RAFI 1000 moved higher by 37.60 points to close at 6025.62.

Treasury Secretary Paulson commented today: Pace of China's Forex, market reforms too slow China needs more currency flexibility; free-floating Yuan long-run goal for China; China has made important Forex reforms; China must rely more on consumption for growth; not worried about China reserves management; China owns small portion of Treasury debt outstanding and that a strong Dollar is clearly in the best of U.S. interests.

Economic data released for the day:

MBA Purchase Applications: Compilation from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association of various mortgage loan indexes. This data is the leading indicator for single-family home sales as well as, housing construction. Purchase Index came in at 408.0 for week of January 26th.

ADP Employment: This report is a national employment report computed from a subset of ADP records that cover roughly 225,000 business establishments and approximately 14 million employees. Macroeconomic Advisors was contracted by ADP to compute a monthly report to assist in predicting monthly non-farm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation covering private payrolls. ADP Macroeconomics Advisers See January Payrolls higher by 152,000.

Employment Cost Index: Broadest measure of labor cost, the ECI is a measure of total employee compensation costs including wages, salaries and benefits. U.S. 4th quarter Employment Cost Index rose at the rate of 3.3% from a year ago and U.S. 4th quarter Employment Cost Index rose by 0.8% compared to consensus of a gain by 1.0%.

GDP (advance): Gross Domestic Product (GDP) encompasses every sector of the economy and is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity. U.S. GDP rose at a rate of 3.5% for the 4th quarter versus consensus of an increase by 3.0%; Chain-Weighted Price Index rose at a rate of 1.5% in the 4th quarter; Domestic Purchases Price Index rose at a rate of 0.1% for the 4th quarter; PCE Price Index fell at the rate of 0.8% for the 4th quarter and Real Final Sales rose at a rate of 4.2% for the 4th quarter.

NAPM-Chicago: A compilation by The National Association of Purchasing Management of a survey and composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. This data is considered a leading indicator of the ISM Manufacturing Index. U.S. Chicago Purchasing Management January New Orders Index came in at 46.3 versus December reading of 56.3; U.S. Chicago Purchasing Management January Employment Index came in at 42.8 versus December reading of 48.2; U.S. Chicago Purchasing Management January Supplier Deliveries came in at 52.2 versus December reading of 45.7; U.S. Chicago Purchasing Management January Prices Paid Index came in at 54.9 versus December reading of 56.9 and U.S. Chicago Purchasing Management Adjusted January Index came in at 48.8 versus December reading of 51.6.

Construction Spending: New construction activity on residential, non-residential and public projects measured in dollar value which is available in nominal and inflation adjusted dollars. U.S. Construction Spending fell by 0.4% in December and November Construction Spending was revised to an increase of 0.1% from a drop by 0.2%.

EIA Petroleum Status Report: EIA (Energy Information Administration) provides weekly petroleum inventories in the United States whether they are produced here or abroad. Prices for petroleum products are determined by the level of inventories. Department of Energy reported on Petroleum Status: U.S. Crude Oil Stockpiles rose by 2.7 million Barrels in the week, compared to estimate of a rise by 1.2 million Barrels; U.S. Gasoline Stockpiles rose by 3.8 million Barrels in the week compared to estimate of a rise by 1.6 million Barrels and U.S. Distillate Stockpiles fell by 2.6 million Barrels in the week compared to estimate of a drop by 2.1 million Barrels.

On the commodities markets, the trend was mostly higher across the board today: Light crude moved higher by $1.17 to close at $58.14 a barrel; Heating Oil closed higher by $0.04 today to close at $1.68 a gallon; Natural Gas moved lower by $0.07 to end the day at $7.67 per million BTU and Unleaded Gas closed higher by $0.01 today at $1.69 a gallon.

Metals ended the session higher across the board again today: Gold moved higher by $7.70 to close at $657.90 an ounce; Silver closed higher by $0.20 at $13.57 an ounce; Platinum gained $1.70 to close at $1,182.30 an ounce and Copper ended the day higher by $0.03 to close at $2.59 per pound.

On the Livestock and Meat markets, the trend was higher across the board today: Lean Hogs closed higher by 0.98 to close at 68.23; Pork Bellies closed the day nicely higher by 3.00 to close at 101.50; Live Cattle closed higher by 0.55 to end the day at 93.18 and Feeder Cattle ended the day higher by 1.00 to close at 95.85.

Other Commodities: Corn gave up 0.75 to close at 404.00 and Soybeans moved lower by 1.50 to close at 719.50.

Bonds were higher across the board again today: 2 year bond closed higher by 3/32 at 99 29/32; 5 year bond closed higher by 7/32 at 99 23/32; 10 year bond closed higher by 15/32 at 98 17/32 and the 30 year bond closed higher by 30/32 at 93 19/32.

The end of day results for the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) which is comprised of the total Exchange Volume for Futures and Options (EVFO) including Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange ended the day at 2,445,972. Open Interest for Futures moved higher by 57,421 to close at 9,321,960 and the Open Interest for Options moved higher by 102,824 to close at 7,572,082 for a total Open Interest of 16,895,213 for a total gain on the day by 160,245.

The mini Dow ended the session with a very nice gain today of 97 to close at 12657. The total Dow Exchange Volume for the day came in at 96,545 which are comprised of Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange. Traders should review workshops available at the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) Educational in-person seminars schedules available on CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) website.

 
 
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Market Commentary for January 31, 2007 from Millennium-Traders.com

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