• TIV may breach 1 million mark in 2012 if global economy recovers;
• Overtakes Thailand in 2011 to be largest auto market in ASEAN.
Mr. Vivek Vaidya, Vice President, Automotive Practice Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan said that Indonesia's TIV may cross the magical 1 million unit mark in 2012 if the global economic environment turns favorable and domestic automotive policy support is strong. "However, at this point in time, the possibility of that happening seems quite low," he added.
Mr. Vaidya said that 2012 will witness the launch or facelift of about 25-30 new models in Indonesia, which is likely to increase vehicle sales.
"Japanese OEMs mainly Toyota, Honda and Suzuki are likely to be front runners in terms of new model introduction as they race to launch a combined 15-20 models in 2012," he said, adding that Ford, Hyundai, Proton and BMW are likely to introduce more than 2 models in 2012 to make their mark in the Indonesian market.
Mr. Vaidya said that vehicle sales in 2012 will be driven by the 4x2 segment with a 6.5 per cent year-on-year growth to 606,100 units, driven by key model launches.
He added that the sedan segment is likely to decline 4.5 per cent year-on-year to 25,520 units in 2012 as consumers' preference switch to sports utility vehicles (SUVs) and compact city cars.
He also foresees the 4x4 segment to grow 12.3 per cent year-on-year to 6,380 units, supported by popular models such as Pajero, Ford Ranger and a few other premium branded models.
Mr. Vaidya said that the pick-up truck segment is likely to enjoy a significant growth of 7.6 per cent year-on-year to 286,281 units in 2012 as the economy grows. He added that double cab segment is expected to grow 8.1 per cent year-on-year to 20,183 units in 2012. "Double cab has an increased popularity as a premium lifestyle vehicle, which can also be used for commercial purposes," he said.
2011 Vehicle Sales Review
Mr. Vaidya said that 2011 was an excellent year for the Indonesian automotive industry as TIV is estimated to grow 16.4 per cent year-on-year to 890,410 units in 2011 despite the global economic downturn and natural disasters that hit Japan and Thailand.
He added that Indonesia has overtaken Thailand as the largest automotive market in ASEAN in 2011. "Thailand is expected to stay flat year-on-year with in TIV at about 800,300 units in 2011," he said.
Mr. Vaidya said that Indonesia's 2011 passenger vehicle sales were driven by growth in the 4x2 segment due to new models offered.
He said that the sedan segment is likely to have declined 19.4 per cent to 26,712 units in 2011 due to the small number of new models offered and consumers' preference for other types of vehicles such as MPVs and compact city cars.
"There is a significant increase in the 4x2 segment, growing 12.8 per cent year-on-year to 569,274 units in 2011, due to popular models in the MPV, compact city cars, mini-vans and SUVs," he added. These models include MPV such as Avanza, Xenia, Innova, Livina, APV; compact city cars such as Jazz, Yaris, Fiesta; mini-vans such as Freed, Gran Max, Alphard; and SUVs such as CR-V, Rush, Terios, Fortuner, Pajero, Juke and Captiva.
Mr. Vaidya said that 2011 also witnessed a significant growth in the 4x4 segment, increasing 48.1 per cent year-on-on year to 5,682 units due to the launch of various new models such as Pajero Sport 4x4, Fortuner, Captiva and the luxury vehicles such as Hummer, Jeep, Lexus & Toyota Land Cruiser.
He said that in the commercial vehicle segment, the pick-up truck and double cab segment probably recorded a growth of 30 per cent year-on-year while the bus segment declined 5.5 per cent year-on-year.
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